Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
One of the best parts of college football season is interacting with the most passionate fans in any sport.
Throw out a top 10 ranking, and forget it. It’s instantly wrong according to roughly 90% of the people out there. Okay, maybe I’m exaggerating, but I threw this out there as a top 10 on Twitter this week and the reviews were, let’s say…. mixed.
In case you missed it, here’s what I came up with. And rest assured, it will be totally different next week.
I kept LSU at one because it was such a predictable flat spot vs. Louisiana Tech coming off the road win at Clemson and the revenge game with Florida this week. But I did consider a swap with Ohio State as that Clemson win loses a lot of its luster after their struggles against Troy, and that’s coming from someone that wasn’t high on Clemson entering the season.
The Buckeyes did what great teams do—completely rout FCS opponents. After another likely rout of Ohio University, the Buckeyes have a potentially sneaky three-game stretch coming up after next week’s idle week: at Washington, home vs. Minnesota and at Illinois. It’s still striking that Ohio State’s post-game win expectancy vs. Texas was under 20%.
Ditto to what I said about Ohio State. The Canes pummeled Bethune-Cookman last week. Miami has a surprise bonus chance to pick up another win over a current ranked team this week thanks to South Florida’s upset win in Gainesville. The next two weeks have the potential to see the Hurricanes bandwagon fill up even more.
The defense looks much better than what we expected. Offensively, I have my concerns, but we’ll get a better idea this week as the Bulldogs offensive line should get two key players back. Georgia is going to go here if they win in Knoxville or fall if they lose, so we’ll keep them here for now. But I am curious to see them respond in a hostile environment. It’s been an odd start to the season with injuries and weather delays, so hopefully UGA can get a “normal” game in this week.
The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State Saturday after Mike Gundy threw some gasoline on the fire. People who faded the win total of 10.5 here might be in trouble. The game at Penn State could determine if they go 12-0. If you’re looking for a team to buy stock in, Oregon is that team, as is QB Dante Moore in the Heisman race. If the Ducks manage to pull the upset in State College, all prices on Oregon get slashed big time.
Mike Norvell’s squad did what they needed to do fvs. East Texas A&M. Florida State has Kent State this week and will be 3-0 going to Virginia, and could be 4-0 entering a matchup with Miami at home. If Tommy Castellanos can stay healthy, this could be a huge bounce back year for the Noles.
The Longhorns had a predictable sleepy win vs. San Jose State. We’ll keep them here because they did go to Columbus and lost a game they could have won. But it feels like the lofty preseason expectations might have been a little too high.
The Nittany Lions were never going to lose to FIU, but it wasn’t the dominant game others had vs. bad teams this week. Again, none of this matters in the big picture—what Penn State does vs. Oregon and Ohio State ultimately determines how good this team is. If you’re ranking this team should be ahead of Miami or LSU right now, you’re only doing it because of your preseason thoughts and ignoring the results we’ve seen on the field. Beat Oregon, and the Lions will go way up.
The scheduling gods came with a welcome idle week after a tough loss at Miami. The Irish have another physical game on tap this week vs. A&M. Is it a must win for CFP hopes? There isn’t a lot of meat left on schedule for an impressive 10-2 if they lose. There’s a chance the only top 25 game left for the remainder of the season is the rivalry game against USC.
Can John Mateer make it through the season healthy at this high level and usage rate in the run game? Against Michigan, the defense did what it should vs. a true freshman QB, excluding the Justice Haynes TD run out of half. It’s the mother of all flat spots this week at Temple coming off that win and with Auburn next week. Every SEC opponent on the Sooners schedule is currently ranked—all eight of them. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that for any team.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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