We’re entering the penultimate week of the regular season, and we might have our first de facto College Football Playoff game this weekend.
The battle between No. 15 USC and No. 7 Oregon in Eugene seems likely to determine a spot in the CFP. A win for USC would seemingly put it in the top 10, while Oregon would improve to 10-1 with a victory and strengthen its chances to make the 12-team field.
Elsewhere, there are some other programs aiming to move a step closer to making the CFP or clinching a spot in their conference’s title game this weekend. The game I’ll be at is among that group, as Rutgers and No. 1 Ohio State battle in Columbus on “Big Noon Saturday.” Meanwhile, “Big Noon Kickoff” will be at BYU–Cincinnati for a major Big 12 tilt.
Here’s my preview of the Rutgers-Ohio State game and my picks for the other top games of the weekend:
There are some health questions surrounding Ohio State, namely with its two best offensive players: wide receivers Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith. Both guys have been a little banged up, with Tate missing the past two games and Smith only playing a little bit against UCLA last week before being seen limping off the field. We’re told that this is somewhat precautionary, and I do believe that, but their statuses for this game are unclear.
That means we might see a lot of young players for Ohio State. Quincy Porter, who Smith has told me is the next great Ohio State wide receiver, might get some opportunities Saturday. Brandon Inniss will have to step up at receiver. OSU has one of the deepest and best wide receiver rooms in the nation, and we might get to see it at full force.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has played some of the best football in the entire country. He’s on pace to break the single-season completion percentage record, sitting at 80% entering Saturday. His processing speed is high, and his release time is quick. He very rarely puts the ball in harm’s way. He has got everything working for him, and there’s a good chance Sayin wins the Heisman Trophy as a result. It seems like he and Ohio State are on a collision course to face Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, where he’ll go up against a fellow Heisman contender in Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza. If Ohio State wins out, Sayin will be in a spot to win the award.
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That said, Ohio State’s defense is the strength of its team. It has been strong all year, giving up just 7.5 points per game. The Buckeyes have also given up just eight touchdowns in 10 games. Their defensive line is excellent, they’ve got the best linebacker corps (Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese) and they have Caleb Downs behind that group at safety — and he might be the best defensive player in the nation.
Can Rutgers challenge Ohio State on the ground? Scarlet Knights running back Antwan Raymond is fantastic, and he’s a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award. Raymond ran for 240 yards on 41 carries against Maryland a couple of weeks ago. I love that type of effort, and Rutgers’ offensive line does a nice job on film. You can tell it’s a team coached by Greg Schiano; they’ve just been hurt by injuries this year. Rutgers has some other things going its way, though, with quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis making his 41st career start Saturday.
Oklahoma is coming off a huge win at Alabama and is sitting in a pole position to make the CFP, but that could haunt the Sooners — because I think the only thing that can beat them on Saturday is complacency.
I don’t think Oklahoma is going to fall into that trap, though. Brent Venables is an intense coach, and he’ll make sure his team carries that intensity this week. The CFP is also right in front of Oklahoma. All it has to do is win the next two games. Just 120 minutes until the CFP, which might not have seemed possible when you saw Oklahoma’s schedule at the start of the season. Every member of this program has to be happy with where they’re at now, which is why I don’t buy into the idea of this game being a letdown for them.
John Mater and Brent Venables have been the nucleus for an OU squad that seems poised to make this year’s CFP. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)
Beyond Oklahoma having a letdown, maybe the only path for Missouri to get the upset win here is to grind it out on the ground. Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy rushed for 300 yards against Mississippi State last week, which is the most rushing yards a player has put up in a single game this season. However, I trust Venables and OU to slow Hardy down more than Mississippi State did.
There’s some speculation that Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula might play, but even if he does, I doubt he’ll be 100 percent. So, Oklahoma, which has one of the best defenses in the country, will be honed in on stopping Hardy. OU has a top-10 run defense and can get after the quarterback.
If you watched that Alabama game, you know Oklahoma is for real. Granted, we don’t know what we’re going to get from Oklahoma’s offense on a week-to-week basis. It isn’t great, but as Sooners quarterback John Mateer gets healthier, watch out.
Pick: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 10 (Oklahoma -7.5)
I think this is a de facto playoff game. If USC wins, it will almost certainly be ranked 10th in the next CFP poll. That 10th spot is a vital spot because it appears that it will be the cutoff spot for at-large teams to make the CFP, with the 11th and 12th spots being taken by the ACC and Group of 5 champions. If USC wins, I think Oregon would fall to No. 11 and wouldn’t be able to surpass USC unless the Trojans lose to UCLA in their season finale.
USC is having a great season. It picked up a pair of nice wins in grind-it-out games over Nebraska and Iowa in recent weeks. The Trojans have also beaten Michigan at home this season, as they’ve shown the ability to do things this season that they haven’t been able to do in the past. They’re winning physical, non-passing-oriented games, and they’re going to have to do that against the Ducks.
Oregon knows that a loss in this game will put its CFP position in a precarious spot. You know head coach Dan Lanning is going to convey that message to his team, and I don’t know if there’s a coach who’s better at motivating his team than him. Plus, it’s a bad matchup for USC, like how I told you last week that Alabama and Texas had bad matchups prior to their respective losses. Oregon can run the rock, and USC has struggled at stopping the run. That’s why USC lost to Notre Dame earlier this year, as it has also struggled to stop the run in victories, too. Oregon is the No. 2 team in yards per game, with Navy being the only team that’s better.
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On top of that, Oregon has the best pass defense in the country and Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places to play at in the nation. So, you can see why the Ducks are nearly double-digit favorites in this game. I know I picked Iowa to upset USC last week, and I give the Trojans a lot of credit for winning that game as they had to make a 14-point comeback, but I just don’t see it happening for Lincoln Riley’s squad again this week.
I know Oregon is battling with injuries at wide receiver, but the Ducks still have Dante Moore at quarterback. I expect USC to put some points up, just not enough for it to take down Oregon.
Pick: Oregon 31, USC 21 (Oregon -9.5)
This is another spread that had me confused. Georgia Tech is only favored by 2.5 points in this game. What’s happening? This one might be even more maddening than the BYU-Cincinnati spread. Maybe Las Vegas is thinking, “It’s an ACC game, and Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi is going to be focused for this one.” (Narduzzi said prior to the Notre Dame loss that he didn’t care if Pitt gave up 100 points in that game.)
Anyway, Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a win. This is also Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King‘s senior day, and he’s going against a freshman quarterback at Pitt, Mason Heintschel, who didn’t play well against Notre Dame. King has been an absolute warrior this season, putting up 424, 511 and 395 total yards of offense in each of Georgia Tech’s past three games. He leads the country in total offense this year as well, averaging 341 yards per game. Georgia Tech also leads the nation in yards per play.
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King has emerged as a potential Heisman candidate. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
At home, Georgia Tech has been dominant. Four of its five wins came by at least 15 points, with the exception being the made field goal at the buzzer to take down Clemson. This feels like Georgia Tech and King’s moment. Pitt’s moment might be next week, when it hosts Miami (Fla.) and has a chance to play spoiler.
Pick: Georgia Tech 30, Pitt 17 (Georgia Tech -2.5)
Cincinnati hasn’t looked great as of late, but BYU is only a 2.5-point favorite. What? I thought BYU would win this game by 12 or 14 before seeing this spread.
BYU looked great last week against TCU, and it controls its own destiny for the Big 12 Championship Game and the CFP. I know the Cougars are better at home than they’ve been on the road, winning tight games at Colorado and Arizona before losing at Texas Tech recently. If you watched the game BYU played last week, though, you’d realize this line is way off. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake is 20-3 since the start of last season. No one talks about Sitake and BYU’s record over the past two years, with Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon being the only programs with better records in that span.
As for the actual matchup, I was impressed with how balanced BYU looked against TCU. Cougars QB Bear Bachmeier was able to throw it well, and BYU ran it well with LJ Martin. The Cougars’ defense was aggressive and physical. In fact, this BYU team has a similar mold to Utah, which it beat earlier this season. And we saw how well Utah did against Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago.
BYU QB Bear Bachmeier has lifted the Cougars to the top tier of the Big 12 this season. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
Cincinnati is coming off back-to-back losses. Following the road blowout loss to Utah, the Bearcats lost to Arizona at home last week. I know they want to run the ball. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been good, and it’s been a solid season for the Bearcats, but c’mon. BYU is much better than the spread suggests, especially with Bachmeier continuing to improve.
Pick: BYU 31, Cincinnati 24 (BYU -2.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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