Underdogs are everyone’s favorites.
With both the college football and NFL seasons underway, each week we’re going to take a look at which underdogs I like most before the pigskin begins.
Let’s check out my picks from Week 6 of the college football season and Week 5 of the NFL season.
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No. 16 Vanderbilt (+10.5) @ No. 10 Alabama
Let’s start on campus, with a team that is used to embracing the role as underdog.
Since quarterback Diego Pavia joined Vanderbilt before the start of the 2024 season, the team has been an underdog 12 times. In those 12 games, Vandy is 10-2 against the spread, with seven outright wins. Six of those 12 games as a ‘dog with Pavia have come on the road, and Vandy has covered all of them, including four outright wins.
Vandy now takes on an Alabama team that is coming off of a huge win at Georgia, and the Commodores face a coach in Kalen DeBoer who has stumbled as a big favorite since taking over at Alabama. Four times already, in DeBoer’s 17 games as Alabama head coach, his team has lost games as a double-digit favorite.
Can this be number five?
I expect Vandy to do what it always seems to do with Pavia at quarterback, and that is keep this game close and threaten to pull off another massive upset.
PICK: Vanderbilt (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points or win outright
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens played the Chiefs last week in a battle of desperate 1-2 teams, a game that would leave the loser in rough shape at 1-3.
Well, the Ravens are that 1-3 team.
After scoring early to go up 7-0 at Kansas City, the Ravens got buried by the defending conference champs and now face another 1-3 team, the Houston Texans.
The Ravens are a mess defensively, ravaged by a rash of key injurie. They have now given up 75 points in the last two weeks. In their 37-20 loss against K.C., quarterback Lamar Jackson was unable to finish the game, leaving with a reported hamstring injury. Even if Jackson is healthy enough to play, he will have to face a very athletic and aggressive Texans defense, and likely do so without being 100 percent.
The Ravens are now left with not only a bad defense, but also a running quarterback with a hamstring injury. I’m not sure Jackson plays this Sunday, and if he does, I think it’s unlikely he’s fully healthy.
The Texans might very well put the talented Ravens in a 1-4 hole.
PICK: Houston (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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