Yes, you can easily make the argument that the Lions–Eagles tilt on Sunday Night Football is the biggest game in the NFL Week 11 odds market.
But dial the clock back just a few hours, when two of the league’s hottest teams collide. You could make that same argument for Seahawks–Rams, a marquee matchup on FOX.
Both are not only 7-2 straight up (SU) but also winners for bettors at 7-2 against the spread (ATS). That number is tied for the best spread-covering mark in the NFL.
“Week in and week out, we’re seeing a lot of Seahawks and Rams action. Bettors are showing up for both these teams,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on the Seahawks-Rams clash and more, as we dive into NFL Week 11 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
Sam Darnold helped the Vikings to a surprising 14-3 SU record last year, along with a money-making 11-5-1 ATS mark. This season, the area code changed, but the results are the same in Seattle.
Darnold & Co. are on a 4-0 SU and ATS surge and are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games. But Matthew Stafford and the Rams are similarly hot, winning and covering four in a row and five of six.
Caesars Sports opened Los Angeles as a 2.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. On Tuesday, L.A. advanced to -3 a couple of times, and the Rams remain -3 as of Wednesday evening.
“Stafford is making his case for MVP,” Feazel said, foreshadowing where the action is so far on this matchup. “It’s a very competitive game, and I expect two-way action by kickoff. But right now, betting is a little bit more toward the Rams.”
Sunday Night Showdown
Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia (7-2 SU/6-3 ATS) is coming off a not-pretty-to-watch-but-important 10-7 Monday night win at Green Bay.
With the point spread closing at either pick ‘em or Packers -1, the Eagles won and covered for the third straight week.
Detroit (6-3 SU and ATS) hasn’t been as consistent lately, losing two of its last four, both SU and ATS. However, as noted in this space practically every week: The Lions are consistent in the long term, a superb 43-14 SU/41-15-1 ATS over their last 57 games, dating to the middle of the 2022-23 season.
That’s a spread-covering rate of about 75%.
And that, folks, will pad your bank account.
Still, the Eagles opened as 1.5-point home favorites at Caesars, then advanced to -2/-2.5 on Monday. As of Wednesday evening, Philly is -2.5 (-120).
“The public was definitely behind the Eagles against the Packers, and we’re seeing that so far against the Lions,” Feazel said. “Which is surprising, because the Lions are one of those teams the public favors. We’ll probably see two-way action on this game by kickoff, with the need being a little more on the Under.”
No doubt, particularly with Detroit’s high-octane offense. That said, the total is actually down so far, moving from 49.5 to 46.5. Don’t be surprised to see that number climb by Sunday night.
Chief Concern
The Chiefs are just 5-4 SU and ATS, yet are Super Bowl favorites at Caesars and elsewhere, largely due to the remaining schedule. In fact, even though the Broncos are 8-2 SU — though just 4-6 ATS — Kansas City is a 4-point road favorite for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff.
Early bettors absolutely have more belief in the Chiefs, who could be in a real bind if they fall to 5-5.
“This is a big game for Kansas City. K.C. is up there in the Super Bowl futures market, but the Broncos are still the AFC West favorite,” Feazel said, before noting action on Sunday’s tilt. “We are seeing far more bets on the Chiefs, including a big bet of $100,000 at -3.5.
“That bigger bet kind of skews things. But the majority of the tickets are on the Chiefs, and I expect continued one-way traffic for the Chiefs. Even though the Broncos have a great record, the public still doesn’t trust Bo Nix.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is already involved with the big FOX matchup of Seahawks-Rams. As noted above, Caesars is now at Los Angeles -3, as are most sportsbooks. McKay jumped in early at Rams -2.5.
“The Rams have dominated Seattle lately and have a more healthy injury report,” McKay said, noting it appears likely that L.A. wideout Davante Adams (oblique), who has nine TDs, will play Sunday. “Plus, Sam Darnold struggles against the Rams, losing twice to them last year.”
To McKay’s first point: L.A. is 6-3 SU/8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings against Seattle. To his point on Darnold: Last season, Minnesota was 0-2 SU and ATS vs. L.A., including a 27-9 wild-card loss.
Playing the Patriots
At 8-2 SU, the Patriots have the NFL’s best record, tied with another surprising team, the Colts, along with the Broncos. And New England is 7-3 ATS, just behind the Seahawks and Rams.
Bettors recognize that fact but aren’t blindly backing the Patriots every week. At least not yet.
“We didn’t see that last week. Everybody was on the Bucs, which was a little surprising,” Feazel said of a game the Pats won 28-23 as 2.5-point road underdogs. “But where the Patriots have been bet is against lesser competition.”
The Jets are just that, even while on a two-game win streak — their first two wins of the season, giving New York a 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS mark. The Patriots opened as 10.5-point favorites, and the line has only gone north from there.
“They’re laying 13 points now. That’s respect from the marketplace and respect from the bettors,” Feazel said. “I don’t think bettors are entirely sold yet. But if New England continues to cover, then bettors are gonna show up at the window.”
As they are so far this week on a line that, as Feazel noted, is up 2.5 points for an 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday night start.
“Jets-Patriots is one-way traffic. Some of that surrounds who the Jets are going to play at QB. There is a difference between Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor,” Feazel said. “This line is leaning toward Taylor starting. A majority of action is on the Patriots, and I don’t see that stopping.
“But the Jets are one of the teams that sharp bettors respect. I expect the sharps to come in on the Jets at +13.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
As of Wednesday evening, NFL Week 10 odds haven’t drawn much in the way of major wagers. Feazel noted that $100,000 Chiefs -3.5 play vs. the Broncos.
And in the futures market, a Caesars customer put $100,000 on Ravens +675 to win the AFC. Baltimore still has a lot of work to do, sitting at 4-5 SU. But the Ravens have won three in a row, are again favored to win the AFC North and are improving rapidly in Super Bowl odds.
Should that wager somehow survive through Feb. 8, then the bettor would profit a hefty $675,000 (total payout $775,000).
Making a short trip into the Wayback Machine, some leftover major wagers from Monday Night Football:
- $100,000 Eagles-Packers Under 45.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook): This bettor never dropped a bead of sweat in Philly’s 10-7 win, while profiting $92,592.59 (total payout $192,592.59).
- $100,000 Eagles-Packers Over 45.5 (BetMGM): On the flip side, this bettor never had a chance Monday night. So that’s a six-figure donation to the house.
- $100,000 Packers moneyline -118. Green Bay looked dreadful in scoring only a touchdown. So that 100K went up in flames, as well.
Esto constituye un recordatorio oportuno: estos grandes actores tienen la capacidad de absorber esas pérdidas.
¿Tú y yo? Bueno, no mucho. Mantenga sus expectativas razonables y apueste responsablemente.
Patrick Everson es analista de apuestas deportivas para FOX Sports y reportero senior de VegasInsider.com. Es un conocido periodista en la industria nacional de apuestas deportivas. Vive en Las Vegas, donde le gusta jugar golf con un calor de 110 grados. Síguelo en X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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